US Tariff Impact Tracker (2026)
How US tariffs are reshaping the global economy · 36 countries tracked · Sources: USTR, IMF, World Bank · Updated June 2026
Timeline
Current Tariff Structure (Post-SCOTUS)
After the Supreme Court voided all IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, the US tariff regime simplified dramatically. Four legal authorities now determine what importers actually pay:
Sources: Trade Compliance Resource Hub · Yale Budget Lab · Penn Wharton · White & Case · Global Trade Alert
Upcoming Tariff Risks
- Jul 24, 2026: Section 122 (10% baseline) expires. Must be renewed by Congress or rates drop to pre-Section 122 levels.
- Section 301 investigations (Mar 2026): Excess capacity investigation targeting China, EU, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, India. Could reimpose country-specific rates.
- Forced labor investigation (Mar 2026): Targeting 60+ countries. Rates TBD.
- Pharma tariffs: 100% on patented imports phasing in — large companies in ~120 days (Aug 2026), smaller in 180 days (Oct 2026).
- Nov 10, 2026: Chinese maritime equipment tariffs (100% on cranes, chassis) take effect.
- Semiconductor investigation: Section 232 investigation on integrated circuits initiated Apr 1, 2026. Threatened rate: 100%.
Effective Tariff Rates & Economic Impact by Country
| # | Country | Effective Rate | GDP Growth | Inflation | Trade (% GDP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Myanmar | 35% | +3.0% | 28.0% | — | Column 2 rates + sanctions. Minimal trade volume. |
| 2 |  Russian Federation | 35% | +1.0% | 5.2% | 40% | Column 2 (non-MFN) tariff rates. PNTR suspended. Aluminum 200% under Section 232. Not IEEPA-dependent. |
| 3 |  China | 34% | +4.2% | 0.7% | 37% | ETR 33.9% (Penn Wharton, Jan 2026). Section 122 (10%) + Section 301 (7.5-25% on ~$370B of goods) + Section 232 (steel/aluminum 50%, semiconductors 50%). Nov 2025 deal reduced fentanyl tariff to 10%. Highest among major partners. |
| 4 |  Japan | 15% | +0.6% | 2.1% | 46% | Japan framework: 15% on autos (Section 232). Other goods at 10% Section 122. Auto is top US export category. |
| 5 |  Korea, Rep. | 15% | +1.8% | 1.8% | 85% | Section 122 (10%) + Section 232 autos at 15% (reduced from 25% under Nov 2025 US-Korea deal). Steel/aluminum/copper at 50%. KORUS FTA covers many other goods. |
| 6 |  Germany | 15% | +0.9% | 1.8% | 79% | EU framework: 15% combined rate on autos (Section 232). Other goods at 10% Section 122. Steel/aluminum at 50%. Blended ~15% due to auto weighting. |
| 7 |  Turkiye | 14% | +3.7% | 24.7% | 55% | Section 122 (10%) + Section 232 steel/aluminum (50%). Steel is major Turkish export — blended ~14%. |
| 8 |  United Kingdom | 12% | +1.3% | 2.5% | 63% | 10% Section 122 + UK-specific Section 232 rates: steel/aluminum 25% (reduced from 50%), auto parts 10%. Preferential via Executive Order 14309 (Jun 2025). Blended ~12%. |
| 9 |  Switzerland | 12% | +1.3% | 0.6% | 134% | 15% framework agreement on select goods (Section 232, survived SCOTUS). 10% Section 122 on other goods. Pharma may face up to 100% under new Section 232 pharma tariffs. Blended ~12%. |
| 10 |  Malaysia | 10% | +4.0% | 2.2% | 137% | SCOTUS voided reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. Electronics supply chain. Subject to Section 301 investigation. |
| 11 |  Philippines | 10% | +5.7% | 2.6% | 66% | SCOTUS voided reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. BPO/services sector unaffected by goods tariffs. |
| 12 |  France | 10% | +0.9% | 1.5% | 68% | 10% Section 122 baseline. EU framework deal on autos uses Section 232. Lower auto exposure than Germany. |
| 13 |  Italy | 10% | +0.8% | 2.0% | 63% | 10% Section 122 baseline. Fashion, machinery, food exports. |
| 14 |  Brazil | 10% | +1.9% | 4.0% | 36% | 10% Section 122 baseline. Agricultural trade. |
| 15 |  Australia | 10% | +2.1% | 3.0% | 47% | 10% baseline. Steel/aluminum at 50% Section 232 but small share of total trade. |
| 16 |  Singapore | 10% | +1.8% | 1.3% | 322% | 10% baseline. Re-export hub. Subject to Section 301 investigation (Mar 2026). |
| 17 |  Norway | 10% | +1.6% | 2.4% | 81% | 10% baseline. Subject to Section 301 investigation (Mar 2026). |
| 18 |  New Zealand | 10% | +2.2% | 2.1% | 51% | 10% baseline. Small trade volume. |
| 19 |  Argentina | 10% | +4.0% | 16.4% | 28% | 10% baseline. Bilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026. |
| 20 |  Colombia | 10% | +2.3% | 3.5% | 37% | 10% baseline. |
| 21 |  Egypt, Arab Rep. | 10% | +4.5% | 11.8% | 40% | 10% baseline. |
| 22 |  Sri Lanka | 10% | +5.0% | 1.2% | 42% | SCOTUS voided the 44% reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. Small trade volume. |
| 23 | TWN | 10% | — | — | — | SCOTUS ruling dropped Taiwan from 15% (Jan 2026 deal) to 10% Section 122 baseline. Subject to Section 301 investigation (Mar 2026). |
| 24 |  Viet Nam | 10% | +5.6% | 3.2% | 174% | SCOTUS voided the 46% reciprocal rate (later 20%). Now at 10% Section 122. Subject to Section 301 investigation (Mar 2026). |
| 25 |  Thailand | 10% | +1.6% | 0.7% | 137% | SCOTUS voided the 36% reciprocal rate (later 19%). Now at 10% Section 122. Subject to Section 301 investigation (Mar 2026). |
| 26 |  Indonesia | 10% | +4.9% | 2.9% | 43% | SCOTUS voided reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. US-Indonesia ART gave lauan plywood zero duty. Subject to Section 301 investigation. |
| 27 |  Cambodia | 10% | +4.0% | 1.8% | 143% | SCOTUS voided the 49% reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. Transshipment concerns — subject to Section 301 investigation. |
| 28 |  Bangladesh | 10% | +4.9% | 8.7% | 27% | SCOTUS voided the 37% reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. Garment sector benefits from lower rate. |
| 29 |  South Africa | 10% | +1.2% | 3.7% | 62% | 10% baseline. AGOA benefits under review. |
| 30 |  India | 10% | +6.2% | 4.0% | 45% | SCOTUS ruling dropped India from 18% (bilateral deal) to 10% Section 122 baseline. The Feb 2026 deal was under IEEPA and became moot. |
| 31 |  Pakistan | 10% | +3.6% | 6.0% | 28% | SCOTUS voided the 29% reciprocal rate. Now 10% Section 122. Bilateral agreement signed Jul 31, 2025. |
| 32 |  Israel | 8% | +3.9% | 2.2% | 54% | US-Israel FTA (not IEEPA-dependent) provides duty exemptions. Effective rate below baseline. |
| 33 |  Canada | 5% | +1.5% | 2.0% | 65% | Section 122 (10%) applies to non-USMCA goods only. ~85% of Canadian imports claim USMCA duty-free (Penn Wharton, Jan 2026). Energy/potash at 10%. Lumber subject to separate duties. |
| 34 |  Mexico | 5% | +1.5% | 3.3% | 75% | Same USMCA dynamic as Canada. ~85% exempt. Auto sector heavily uses USMCA rules of origin. SCOTUS removed IEEPA fentanyl tariffs. |
| 35 |  Saudi Arabia | 3% | +4.0% | 2.0% | 55% | Energy imports (~95% of Saudi exports to US) exempt from Section 122. Effective rate very low. |
| 36 |  Nigeria | 3% | +4.2% | 22.0% | — | Oil imports (>90% of exports to US) exempt. Effective rate very low. |
Key Findings
The US tariff regime that began with "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025 represents the most significant shift in US trade policy since Smoot-Hawley. One year on, the picture is more nuanced than the initial shock suggested. The US average effective tariff rate stands at 11.0% — the highest since 1943, but far below the headline rates announced in April 2025. The gap between headline and effective rates is the story: Canada and Mexico face announced tariffs of 25-35%, but ~85% of their exports enter duty-free under USMCA, producing effective rates of just ~5%. China's effective rate of ~34% is the highest of any major partner, but well below the initial 145% — a November 2025 deal reduced the reciprocal tariff from 125% to 10%, though layered Section 301 and fentanyl duties keep the blended rate high.
The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump fundamentally changed the legal landscape. By striking down the use of IEEPA for tariffs, the court forced the administration to fall back on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which limits import surcharges to 10% for 150 days. This creates rolling legal uncertainty — the current 10% baseline expires on July 24, 2026 and must be renewed or replaced with congressional action. Meanwhile, Section 232 tariffs (steel 50%, aluminum 50%, autos 25%, pharma up to 100%) remain legally distinct and unaffected by the ruling.
The macroeconomic effects are asymmetric. US inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, partly driven by higher import costs. China has experienced deflationary pressure as export demand shifted. Countries with high trade-to-GDP ratios (Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia) are most exposed to tariff shocks. India emerged as a relative winner, negotiating its rate down to 18% in exchange for market access concessions. The biggest surprise is USMCA's resilience — the free trade agreement has proven far more durable than initial rhetoric suggested, with importers aggressively leveraging rules of origin to maintain duty-free access. The IMF estimates the tariff escalation reduced global GDP growth by 0.3-0.5 percentage points relative to baseline.
All economic data on this page is sourced from the IMF World Economic Outlook, the World Bank, and the Office of the US Trade Representative. Tariff rates reflect the post-Supreme Court legal framework as of April 2026.