Prediction Markets
LiveReal-money prediction markets from Polymarket. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate for each outcome.
Last updated: 23 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC
Central Banks & Rates
15 marketsWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes96%
Vol: $8.5MLiq: $424K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes46%
Vol: $2.8MLiq: $374K
Resolves: Oct 28, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes54%
Vol: $2.6MLiq: $511K
Resolves: Oct 28, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes68%
Vol: $341KLiq: $123K
Resolves: Dec 9, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes28%
Vol: $225KLiq: $150K
Resolves: Dec 9, 2026Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Yes11%
Vol: $161KLiq: $3K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Recession & Growth
7 marketsUS recession by end of 2026?
Yes9%
Vol: $2.1MLiq: $40K
Resolves: Jan 31, 2027Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Yes91%
Vol: $233KLiq: $10K
Resolves: Jan 31, 2027US recession by end of 2027?
Yes35%
Vol: $10KLiq: $20K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2027Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?
Yes24%
Vol: $9KLiq: $3K
Resolves: Jan 15, 2027Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?
Yes25%
Vol: $9KLiq: $611
Resolves: Oct 30, 2026Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
Yes22%
Vol: $9KLiq: $546
Resolves: Oct 27, 2026Elections & Politics
255 marketsWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes13%
Vol: $27.7MLiq: $421K
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Yes4%
Vol: $22.0MLiq: $820K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes7%
Vol: $18.4MLiq: $324K
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes21%
Vol: $16.5MLiq: $475K
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes51%
Vol: $15.7MLiq: $409K
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes18%
Vol: $15.2MLiq: $344K
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028Geopolitics & Conflict
102 marketsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes14%
Vol: $68.4MLiq: $1.1M
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes4%
Vol: $42.6MLiq: $570K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes7%
Vol: $26.2MLiq: $659K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Yes3%
Vol: $11.8MLiq: $97K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes85%
Vol: $6.6MLiq: $73K
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026Iran leadership change by December 31?
Yes14%
Vol: $4.7MLiq: $277K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Crypto & Markets
94 marketsWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes4%
Vol: $8.0MLiq: $361K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes9%
Vol: $6.3MLiq: $349K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Yes4%
Vol: $5.1MLiq: $69K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes7%
Vol: $3.9MLiq: $290K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes42%
Vol: $3.5MLiq: $83K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes3%
Vol: $3.4MLiq: $177K
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027How to read prediction markets
Probability
The percentage shown is the market's implied probability — the crowd's best estimate of the outcome happening. A market at 73% means traders collectively believe there's a 73% chance of "Yes." Volume
Total dollars traded on this market. Higher volume = more attention and generally more reliable pricing. Markets with $1M+ volume are considered highly reliable signals.Liquidity
Money available in the order book. Higher liquidity means prices are harder to manipulate and more trustworthy as probability estimates.Data from Polymarket via Gamma API. Prediction markets reflect crowd consensus, not certainty. Not financial advice.